Gold and silver prices opened weaker in early U.S. trading on Friday but quickly rebounded from overnight lows, reflecting ongoing investor caution in response to both geopolitical signals and fresh inflation data.
Market Movers: Trump’s Trade Rhetoric Shakes Confidence
A key catalyst behind today’s market activity was a social media post from President Trump stating he would no longer be “Mr. Nice Guy” with China in matters of trade. The message, released just before U.S. market open, modestly rattled equity market bulls and led to a brief sell-off in major stock indexes.
While the comment did not contain specific policy actions, the tone rekindled concerns about renewed trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. For gold, often seen as a hedge against political uncertainty, the reaction was relatively muted but enough to lift it off session lows.
Inflation Data Keeps Fed Path Intact
On the macroeconomic front, the April personal income and outlays report, including the closely watched PCE inflation indices, was released this morning. The PCE price index rose 2.1% year-over-year, slightly below the previous month’s 2.3% and within market expectations. The core PCE index, excluding food and energy, showed a 2.5% annual rise—also a minor easing from March’s 2.6%.
These figures signal inflation is slowly stabilizing but remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Importantly, they were not hot enough to alarm markets or change expectations for the Fed’s interest rate trajectory in the near term.
Legal Update: Tariffs Temporarily Reinstated
Adding another layer of complexity to the market narrative, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit granted a stay on Thursday afternoon that temporarily reinstates Trump’s emergency tariffs on a broad range of imports. The stay allows tariff collection to continue while the administration appeals a lower court ruling that had declared the duties unauthorized.
This development introduces renewed legal uncertainty for businesses and investors. Although a final ruling could come swiftly, the door remains open for further escalation, possibly involving the Supreme Court.
Current Price Snapshot (as of Friday Morning):
- August Gold: Down $22.30 at $3,322.00
- July Silver: Down $0.123 at $33.30
- Crude Oil (Nymex): Up at $61.75 per barrel
- 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: 4.436%
- U.S. Dollar Index: Firm
Technical Outlook
Gold (August Futures)
Gold bulls maintain a near-term technical advantage, supported by safe-haven demand and geopolitical tension.
- Resistance: $3,347.00, followed by $3,375.00
- Support: $3,300.00, then $3,269.10
- Upside Objective: Close above $3,400.00
- Downside Objective: Close below $3,200.00
- Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5 (bullish bias)
Silver (July Futures)
Silver bulls hold a slight near-term technical edge but face resistance in the $34 range.
- Resistance: $33.75, then $34.015
- Support: $33.00, followed by $32.80
- Upside Objective: Close above $34.015
- Downside Objective: Close below $31.78
- Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5 (neutral-to-bullish)
Looking Ahead
Markets are now turning their attention to additional U.S. economic data scheduled for release later today, including advance trade indicators, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. These reports could provide further insight into economic momentum and consumer confidence heading into summer.
As geopolitical tensions linger and inflation data remains in focus, gold and silver are likely to remain responsive to headline risk. For investors, this environment reinforces the importance of strategic portfolio positioning and disciplined entry points in precious metals.
